Friday, October 29, 2004

Statistics to reveal Culturenet fraud

Culturenet Cymru will not make its 100 Welsh Heroes database available for public inspection. Perhaps there's another way to demonstrate that the figures are faked.

For example, out of the 100 finalists, there are 10 groups sharing exactly the same vote:

  • one group of four nominees, all with 57 votes
  • two groups of three nominees with 135 votes and 55 votes
  • seven groups of two nominees with 158, 143, 120, 81, 68, 64 and 62 votes

This looks like the sort of pattern you might expect if there were far fewer votes, necessarily clustering around a smaller spread (especially at the lower end), with successive artificial boosts given week on week - and that's exactly what the ex-IT Manager says happened.

If anyone who knows enough stats would care to take a look at the figures? Failing that we'll have to do the analysis ourselves.